See the Runoff Risk Forecast in your area.
The Minnesota Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) is a decision‑support tool that helps farmers and commercial applicators identify the safest times to apply manure. Weather conditions such as precipitation, snowmelt, or saturated soils can cause recently applied manure to move off-target, reducing nutrient availability for crops and increasing the risk of impairing nearby lakes, streams, and wetlands.
RRAF uses a predictive model that incorporates soil moisture, forecast precipitation and temperatures, snow accumulation, and snowmelt to estimate the likelihood of runoff over three timeframes: today, tomorrow, and the next 72 hours. Users can view an interactive map, locate their field, and see the forecasted runoff risk for their area.
Runoff risk is grouped into four categories: No Runoff Expected, Low, Moderate, and Severe. When the forecast shows Moderate or Severe risk, applicators are encouraged to evaluate whether another field or a later application date may reduce the potential for nutrient loss. Additional considerations for evaluating field‑level conditions are available in Assessing the Runoff Risk for a Field.
Use the How to use this map tab on the map for more information about the Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast system.
Collaborative Effort
The RRAF system is a collaborative project developed by the MDA and the National Weather Service as part of a regional initiative to reduce manure‑nutrient runoff. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio have partnered with federal agencies and universities to create consistent, science‑based runoff‑risk tools across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
Minnesota’s RRAF is funded by the state’s Clean Water Fund and supported by the MDA, the National Weather Service, and additional state‑agency and industry partners. Together, these organizations provide producers with reliable, real‑time information to help protect water quality while maintaining productive, resilient agricultural systems.
